A JRo essay.  “2003: Oil and War” [John Robb’s Radio Weblog]
This is obviously the kind of stuff gruff oil men talk about over scotch and cigars late at night to scare each other.
The upshot is that in order to meet global demand for oil over the next eight years, production from the Middle East is going to need to increase markedly — specifically from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. There isn’t any way around it….So, Bush made a decision. He has chosen to intervene before the situation became acute….
The most amazing thing to me is that there hasn’t been any major effort to fund programs or incentivize adoption of alternative sources of energy. We are marching off to war with little hope of an exit strategy.

It’s a lot to expect of an administration so closely tied — some would say “joined at the hip” to the oil industry. And yet there is a rising tide of voices — not yet a clamor, but from increasingly diverse sources — talking of the need for energy independence as a national security strategy. (Those who think Alaska is a significant part of that option should take a look at John Robb’s sketch of the numbers.)